A modelling tool to assist resource planning and impact assessment in Pandemic Flu or a large Infectious disease outbreak in Northamptonshire
PHE ePoster Library. Hoy M. 09/12/19; 274537; 92
Matthew Hoy
Matthew Hoy
Login now to access Regular content available to all registered users.

You may also access this content "anytime, anywhere" with the Free MULTILEARNING App for iOS and Android
Abstract
Rate & Comment (0)
Abstract Introduction
Pandemic influenza remains the number one risk on the UK risk register due to its devastating impact and the relative likelihood when compared to other Civil Contingencies risks. Our capability to adequately prepare for this risk depends on our ability to understand the nature and scale of its impacts we are likely to face in a realistic and tangible way. Aim: To propose a modelling tool to assist resource planning and impact assessment in relation to critical risk areas of health service provision, workforce planning and excess deaths in order to effectively communicate this to the decision makers.
Method
A flexible modelling tool has been developed which enables assessment of capacity requirements, potential shortfalls and recovery. The tool replicates the core figures reflected in the National Resilience Planning Assumption, but is fully customisable to reproduce differences in alternative clinical attack rates, case fatality rates and/or infection curves. When overlaid on other locally defined assumptions, basic population and local capacity data, it supports areas to undertake a realistic assessment of their capability and capacity; and establishes clear parameters for contingency planning activity.
Result
The model has been validated by local key partners. A multi-agency strategic exercise is planned where its implications will be fully assessed against current response strategies; and further evaluation of the tools usefulness will be undertaken.
Conclusion
It has identified core areas where the scale of existing contingency plans significantly underestimate impact; and is therefore driving the development of new work and potential shifts in our policy. External funding details
Abstract Introduction
Pandemic influenza remains the number one risk on the UK risk register due to its devastating impact and the relative likelihood when compared to other Civil Contingencies risks. Our capability to adequately prepare for this risk depends on our ability to understand the nature and scale of its impacts we are likely to face in a realistic and tangible way. Aim: To propose a modelling tool to assist resource planning and impact assessment in relation to critical risk areas of health service provision, workforce planning and excess deaths in order to effectively communicate this to the decision makers.
Method
A flexible modelling tool has been developed which enables assessment of capacity requirements, potential shortfalls and recovery. The tool replicates the core figures reflected in the National Resilience Planning Assumption, but is fully customisable to reproduce differences in alternative clinical attack rates, case fatality rates and/or infection curves. When overlaid on other locally defined assumptions, basic population and local capacity data, it supports areas to undertake a realistic assessment of their capability and capacity; and establishes clear parameters for contingency planning activity.
Result
The model has been validated by local key partners. A multi-agency strategic exercise is planned where its implications will be fully assessed against current response strategies; and further evaluation of the tools usefulness will be undertaken.
Conclusion
It has identified core areas where the scale of existing contingency plans significantly underestimate impact; and is therefore driving the development of new work and potential shifts in our policy. External funding details
    This eLearning portal is powered by:
    This eLearning portal is powered by MULTIEPORTAL
Anonymous User Privacy Preferences

Strictly Necessary Cookies (Always Active)

MULTILEARNING platforms and tools hereinafter referred as “MLG SOFTWARE” are provided to you as pure educational platforms/services requiring cookies to operate. In the case of the MLG SOFTWARE, cookies are essential for the Platform to function properly for the provision of education. If these cookies are disabled, a large subset of the functionality provided by the Platform will either be unavailable or cease to work as expected. The MLG SOFTWARE do not capture non-essential activities such as menu items and listings you click on or pages viewed.


Performance Cookies

Performance cookies are used to analyse how visitors use a website in order to provide a better user experience.


Save Settings