Supporting the NHS in Winter
PHE ePoster Library. Mapstone J. Sep 12, 2019; 274532; 88
Dr. James Mapstone
Dr. James Mapstone
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Abstract
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Abstract Introduction
Each Winter the NHS experiences additional pressure on its services. An enhanced response structure is in place each year and PHE supports it, locally, regionally and nationally. This poster describes the South regional support.
Methods
The support splits into 3 areas: 1. Planned reporting - every Thursday local and national PHE releases a wealth of information that requires filtering for the winter rooms. Some weeks this meant distilling 15 reports into one. 2. Developing new tools – we produced mapping of local authorities to acute trust catchments to aid with the interpretation of local surveillance data. We produced a tool to convert regional flu admission data to local hospital expected numbers. We produced forecast estimates of cold weather impacts on Trusts. 3. Responding to queries - weekly the question is, “What will the next few days be like; will it get worse or better?” Less frequent queries are; “What explains the current high activity?”, “Is x Trust particularly affected by viral disease?”, “What is this year like compared to last?” and “What is the latest ‘flu vaccine uptake and how can we improve?”ResultsSatisfaction with the reporting is high amongst our partners. Each week the summaries were circulated to over 70 NHS leaders in the South. The cold weather impact estimate led to targeted work with community respiratory teams.
Conclusions
Some of the regional work could be automated for the country as is done for flu by Field Epidemiology. Machine learning could improve our NHS admission predictions. External funding details
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