Trust catchment populations: using Greater London Area population estimates
PHE ePoster Library. Shadwell S. Sep 12, 2019; 274508; 67
Stephanie Shadwell
Stephanie Shadwell
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Abstract
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Abstract Introduction
Hospitals have an increasing need to understand the populations they seek to manage. However, Acute Trusts do not have geographically-defined boundaries for their population nor do they have all encompassing lists of registered patients. PHE produced an interactive dashboard, creating modelled catchments based on hospital admissions using ONS Mid-Year Estimates in a proportionate-flow method. A request was then made from a London Acute Trust to use Greater London Authority (GLA) data to model catchments. GLA population estimates use ONS Middle-Supper-Output-Area (MSOA) data and are approximately 1% higher than ONS Mid-Year Estimates.
Method
Using proportionate-flow method, catchment populations for the GLA were modelled using MSOA and Mid-Year Estimates.
Results
We hypothesised that with a higher base population, the resulting modelled catchment population would be higher. However, results indicated a different pattern. Chelsea & Westminster Hospital NHS Foundation Trust modelled catchment for all admissions was 598,040 with GLA populations, compared to 603,916 using Mid-Year Estimates. Kings College Hospital NHS Foundation Trust modelled catchment for all admissions was 799,438 with GLA populations, compared to 782,536 with Mid-Year Estimates. It was also found that variation in GLA population estimates across MSOA, sex and age bands in comparison to ONS Mid-Year Estimates, combined with where the acute trust draws patients from impacted the outcome of the modelled catchment.
Conclusion
For London-based Acute Trusts, the use of different population estimates covering the GLA area could provide a vital role in producing alternate modelled catchment population, to support the understanding of the population they serve. External funding details
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