The impact of individual alcohol licensing decisions on health and crime using local, small-scale natural experiments
PHE ePoster Library. De Vocht F. Sep 12, 2019; 274377; 181
Dr. Frank De Vocht
Dr. Frank De Vocht
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Abstract
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Abstract Introduction
. Natural experiments offer the opportunity to evaluate interventions, and evaluations of the impact of individual licensing decisions would be beneficial for policy makers. This project aimed to assess whether alcohol licensing decisions can be evaluated at small spatial scale by using a novel statistical framework.Method. 3 case studies were evaluated: the closure of a nightclub and the closure of a restaurant/nightclub following reviews, and the implementation of new Local Licensing Guidance (LLG). Timeseries of emergency department admissions, ambulance call-outs, and crimes for were modelled using Bayesian structural timeseries and post-intervention trends compared to synthetic controls (counterfactuals).
Results
. Closure of the nightclub was associated with temporary reductions in anti-social behaviour (-18%), with no effects on other outcomes. Closure of the restaurant/nightclub was not associated with measurable changes in outcomes. Implementation of LLG was associated with small reductions in drunk and disorderly behaviour (9 of a predicted 21 events averted), and the unplanned LLG end one year later with a monthly increase of 2 additional incidents of domestic violence.
Conclusion
It is possible to evaluate the impact of small-scale local alcohol policy using this novel framework. We provide quantitative evidence that local licensing decisions can have both positive and negative impacts on health and crime in the immediate surrounding area. External funding details Funding:This work was funded by the National Institute for Health Research School for Public Health Research (NIHR SPHR). The views expressed are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR or the Department of Health.
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