Estimating the health-related costs associated with the effects of long-term exposure to ambient PM2.5 on ischemic heart disease morbidity and mortality.
PHE ePoster Library. Ibbetson A. Apr 10, 2019; 257522
Mr. Andrew Ibbetson
Mr. Andrew Ibbetson
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Abstract Background:

Ambient air pollution is one of the leading environmental causes of mortality and morbidity in the UK. Studies suggest that long-term exposure to the fine fraction of particulate matter (PM2.5) is particularly harmful to health, and is associated with increased risk of developing non-communicable diseases, such as ischemic heart disease (IHD).
:We constructed a multi-state health impact assessment model to represent IHD progression. A review of the literature and meta-analysis was conducted to produce air pollution-related relative risk estimates for IHD incidence and case fatality. The model was applied to England to estimate the effects of a removal of anthropogenic sources of PM2.5 up to the year 2065. Using the model outputs, we estimated health-related costs, including those relating to the health service, informal care, productivity and the monetisation of loss of life and disability..
and Findings:The reduction in anthropogenic ambient PM2.5 resulted in an estimated decrease in incidence of IHD but increased prevalence of disease, as death among those with prevalent disease appears to be delayed. Due to this increase in prevalence, we estimated a rise in IHD-related healthcare costs. However, the increase in years lived disease free and the delay in mortality among those with prevalent disease is likely to produce cost savings in the form of increased productivity. Relevance to public health:In line with previous studies, our results show that reductions in air pollution are likely to lead to health benefits and cost savings. However, by using a three state transition model we estimated that removal of air pollution will expand IHD morbidity. This may increase costs to the health service, but this appears to be outweighed by gains in productivity. Funding The National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Protection Research Unit in Environmental Change and Health (HPRU ECH)
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