The application of kernel smoothing to estimate the spatio-temporal relative risk of STEC O157 in England.
PHE ePoster Library. Elson R. Apr 9, 2019; 257520; 15441
Mr. Richard Elson
Mr. Richard Elson
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Abstract
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Abstract Background:
Identifying geographical areas with significantly higher or lower rates of infection has the potential to provide important clues upon which to base public health policy. The integration of spatial data to surveillance systems is now commonplace, allowing the application of statistical methods to precisely delineate areas of higher or lower risk.
Methods:
We used kernel smoothing to estimate the spatial and spatio-temporal relative risk of STEC O157 in England. Cases were drawn from the national enhanced surveillance system for STEC and controls were randomly selected from the National Population Database..
Results:
Our results show that the distribution of STEC O157 infection in England is not uniform compared to the distribution of the underlying population and that the spatial distribution of the three main genetic lineages infecting humans differs. The spatio-temporal risk is dynamic and highly regionalised.ConclusionThe risk of sporadic infection with STEC O157 varies significantly across England. We suggest that this is due to differential exposure of the population to geographically restricted risk factors. Further work to identify the importance of behaviours and exposures reported by cases relative to residential location is needed, and we anticipate the findings in this work will guide future research. Funding The research was funded by the National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit (NIHR HPRU) in Gastrointestinal Infections at University of Liverpool in partnership with Public Health England (PHE), in collaboration with University of East Anglia, University of Oxford and the Institute of Food Research. Tilman M. Davies was supported in part by the Royal Society of New Zealand, Marsden Fast-start grant 15-UOO-092.
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