NHS Stop Smoking Services and Smoking Prevalence in England: a Modelling Evaluation
PHE ePoster Library. Song F. 09/10/18; 221336; 35
Dr. Fujian Song
Dr. Fujian Song
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Abstract Background: The English NHS stop smoking service (SSS) was established in 2001, as the first such service in the world. Although there is little doubt about its cost-effectiveness, the impact of the NHS SSS on the reduction in smoking prevalence in England has not been quantified.Methods: Based mainly on official statistical or literature data on smoking, we developed a computational model to simulate changes in smoking prevalence between 2001 and 2016 in England. The simulation model was used to quantify the impact of the NHS SSS on smoking prevalence between 2001 and 2016. Results: The proportion of SSS-supported quit attempts among all quit attempts was about 5∙5% in 2001 and 8∙4% in 2016. SSS-supported quit attempts were associated with a higher success rate than other quit attempts in general. The proportion of those with SSS-support was 14∙6% of all long-term quitters. Between 2001 and 2016 in England, smoking prevalence was reduced by 10∙9% in absolute terms, and 1∙6% of the reduction was associated with SSS support. Increases in the number of quitters who received SSS-support were accompanied by a simultaneous reduction in the number of those without SSS-support. Smoking prevalence in England continued to decline after the support from NHS SSS was much reduced from 2013 onwards. Conclusions: The actual impact of the formal cessation services is likely to have been small. Comprehensive tobacco control measures need to be strengthened in order to achieve the national smoke-free ambitions in England. External funding details No specific funding for this study.
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