Incidence of syphillis in Yorkshire and Humber: an interrupted time series analysis
Author(s): ,
Mary Cronin
Affiliations:
Field Epidemiology Service Leeds, National Infection Service, Public Health England
,
Gareth Hughes
Affiliations:
Field Epidemiology Service Leeds, National Infection Service, Public Health England
Simon Padfield
Affiliations:
Field Epidemiology Service Leeds, National Infection Service, Public Health England
PHE ePoster Library. Cronin M. Mar 21, 2018; 205918; 12582
Mary Cronin
Mary Cronin
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Abstract
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Abstract Background: In 2016 in Yorkshire and Humber the number of cases diagnosed with syphilis increased by 84% in comparison to 2015. A number of localised exceedances were also reported to the Field Epidemiology Service (Leeds).Aim: To describe this increase using existing data and to identify breakpoints in syphilis incidence in Yorkshire and Humber using time series analysis.Methods: All cases reported to GUMCAD with early latent, primary or secondary syphilis between January 2012 and June 2017 in Yorkshire and Humber were included. Data were broken down by local authority of residence. Interrupted Poisson regression was used to identify breakpoints leading to optimal model fit.Results: For Yorkshire and Humber June 2015 was identified as the optimum breakpoint. Following June 2015 cases increased at a rate of 1.03 per month (95% CI: 1.02 - 1.05; p: <0.01). In Bradford and Leeds a breakpoint was identified earlier than the region (July, 2014), followed by Barnsley (October, 2015), Wakefield (November, 2015) and Hull (March, 2016).Discussion: The increase seen in 2016 may indicate the region is ‘catching up' with the national trend and that different parts of the region are being affected sequentially. Further work using the existing data will establish if there is any significant change in case characteristics particularly in terms of sexual orientation and age group following the identified breakpoints or if transmission is being seen more generally across all groups. This will help to identify if there are any specific groups to target for public health intervention and will help clarify the added value of further data collection through enhanced surveillance.
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