Modelling Demand for Adult Social Care Services
PHE ePoster Library. Hooper J. 09/13/17; 186471; 219
Jeremy Hooper
Jeremy Hooper
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Abstract
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Abstract Methods:The population in Wiltshire aged 65 or over is predicted to rise by a third in the next 10 years. This is placing increasing pressure on health and adult social care services.To continue to deliver services a greater understanding of the likely demand is critical and will enable greater integration of Health and Social care services. This understanding will help focus the system on outcomes which can ensure sustainability.Using standard statistical modelling techniques we are building a model of the demand for social care services which is driven by discharges from hospital. The model looks at the pathway taken by individuals needing support.Results:The model provides insight of the complexity of Social Care services and focuses attention on areas where small changes can make a difference to system sustainability.The model has identified that focussing on outcomes could deliver a more sustainable system. Demand is predicted to increase but prevention may reduce the acuity helping achieve better outcomes.The model will help discussions across the system on investment priorities which will benefit the whole system and improve patient / client outcomes.Outcomes:The model is now being used to support a redesign of our reablement service to increase the number of people who can remain independent at home for longer.The model is also likely to be used to support the evaluation of integrated discharge services at our 3 main acute trusts.We are looking to develop the model to look at workforce deployment. External funding details Not Applicable
Abstract Methods:The population in Wiltshire aged 65 or over is predicted to rise by a third in the next 10 years. This is placing increasing pressure on health and adult social care services.To continue to deliver services a greater understanding of the likely demand is critical and will enable greater integration of Health and Social care services. This understanding will help focus the system on outcomes which can ensure sustainability.Using standard statistical modelling techniques we are building a model of the demand for social care services which is driven by discharges from hospital. The model looks at the pathway taken by individuals needing support.Results:The model provides insight of the complexity of Social Care services and focuses attention on areas where small changes can make a difference to system sustainability.The model has identified that focussing on outcomes could deliver a more sustainable system. Demand is predicted to increase but prevention may reduce the acuity helping achieve better outcomes.The model will help discussions across the system on investment priorities which will benefit the whole system and improve patient / client outcomes.Outcomes:The model is now being used to support a redesign of our reablement service to increase the number of people who can remain independent at home for longer.The model is also likely to be used to support the evaluation of integrated discharge services at our 3 main acute trusts.We are looking to develop the model to look at workforce deployment. External funding details Not Applicable
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