Forecasting E. coli bacteraemia in England to 2020/21
PHE ePoster Library. Hope R. Sep 12, 2017; 186442; 57
Dr. Russell Hope
Dr. Russell Hope
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Abstract
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Abstract IntroductionAims to reduce Gram-negative bacteraemia (GNB) episodes in England by 50% by 2020/21 were recently published. GNB accounted for 46% of all bacteraemia in 2016; the majority were E. coli (55%), approximately one-third of E. coli bacteraemias are resistant to key antibiotics. There has been an average 6% annual increase in E. coli bacteraemias but a decreasing trend in 30-day all-cause case fatality rates (CFR) since 2012/13. MethodsData were extracted from the healthcare associated infections data capture system for 2012/13-2016/17. Thirty-day all-cause mortality was determined by matching patient records to central NHS records using NHS number and date of birth. Linear regression was used to forecast bacteraemias and CFR from 2017/18-2020/21. CFR was used to estimate number of deaths for mortality rate calculations. Population data were obtained from ONS.ResultsAssuming no change in annual increases in E. coli bacteraemia rates, estimates for incidence in 2020/21 reach 85.1/100,000 population (95% CI:84.4-85.8/100,000); representing a 12.2% increase from 2016/17 (75.9/100,000). This equates to an additional 12,162 E. coli bacteraemia episodes between 2017/18 and 2020/21; these cases represent an estimated economic cost of £18-36million. Over this time period, decreases in CFR are expected (15.1% to 13.2%); however, mortality rates are estimated to remain stable at 11.2/100,000 population, (annual average 6,261 30-day all-cause fatalities following E. coli bacteraemia).ConclusionsThis is the first forecast of E. coli bacteraemia, CFR and mortality rates in England; providing a baseline for impact evaluation of future interventions in support of the GNB reduction ambitions. External funding details NTD.
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