Understanding respiratory syncytial virus transmission: a systematic review
PHE ePoster Library. Hodgson D. 09/13/16; 137990; 200
Mr. David Hodgson
Mr. David Hodgson
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Abstract IntroductionRespiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) is the leading cause of acute lower respiratory infections (ALRI) in children and a major cause of severe ALRI-related hospital admissions globally. Although there are a variety of vaccines approaching licensure with a range of target groups, there is no clear consensus on the optimal RSV vaccination strategy. We review to-date mathematical models of RSV transmission and assess what we can infer from them about potential vaccination strategies.MethodsWe performed a systematic literature review to identify all research articles which model the transmission of RSV. We include published original research articles written in English that implement a novel mathematical framework to model the transmission of RSV within a human populous unconstrained to settings.ResultsSeasonality is an important factor in RSV transmission with peak transmission in temperate countries occurring in the winter months (Oct-Dec), whereas in tropical settings there is no such clear seasonality. There is no single climatic variable which correlates with RSV transmission. We observed that only two models that considered vaccination had a sufficiently complicated age-stratified structure which could be used to draw conclusions about potential age-specific vaccine strategies. They identify that either the vaccination of infants (5-10 months old) or of primary school children are effective vaccination strategies at reducing RSV incidence rates in Kenya.ConclusionsThis review highlights the need for more sophisticated mathematical models of RSV transmission in developed countries, in order to assess optimal vaccination strategies for the imminent arrival of new RSV vaccines.
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